Сводка рынка

China’s stainless steel market experienced sharp price fluctuations this week. Prices initially declined toward previous lows, followed by a limited rebound. Toward the end of the week, market activity increased significantly, but this movement was largely driven by short-term trading factors rather than real demand recovery.

Under the traditional off-season environment, overall market confidence remains cautious. Buyers continue to focus on policy developments and supply-side adjustments rather than aggressive restocking.

The main stainless steel futures contract closed at RMB 12,720/MT, up 1.23% week-on-week, with a weekly high of RMB 12,835/MT.

Связанные продукты:

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1. Ситуация на спотовом рынке

Spot stainless steel prices in China rose by approximately RMB 100/MT this week. However, this increase should be viewed carefully:

  • Market sentiment remains weak due to soft downstream demand

  • Transactions are mainly concluded at lower price levels

  • Inventory reduction is ongoing, but overall stock levels remain relatively high

  • Steel mills have increased maintenance activities, easing supply pressure to some extent

  • Under a weak supply–weak demand structure, upside price potential remains limited

Raw material prices edged slightly higher, providing cost support. Steel mills still maintain reasonable production margins, but price increases are not demand-driven.

Export conditions remain uncertain due to global macro factors, and buyers remain cautious about accepting higher prices.

Overall, stainless steel prices are expected to stabilize at low levels with range-bound fluctuations, rather than entering a strong upward trend.

2. Key Weekly Price Trends (Buyer Reference)

  • 304 / 2B / BA: Slight declines at most mills, indicating stable supply and limited short-term upside

  • 201 series: Mild price softening, suitable for cost-sensitive applications

  • 430 series: Generally weak, reflecting subdued demand

  • 304 NO.1 hot rolled: Small pullbacks, offering negotiation opportunities

  • Scrap prices: Mostly stable, confirming cost support but not strong demand recovery

These movements suggest the market is currently price-sensitive, with buyers pushing back against higher offers.

3. Inventory & Supply Signals

Registered stainless steel warehouse inventories dropped sharply to 48,495 tons, down 12,106 tons week-on-week. This significant destocking has reduced immediate inventory pressure, supporting price stability at current levels.

However, continued destocking will be key to sustaining any further improvement. Without stronger end-user demand, inventory reduction alone is unlikely to drive a strong price rebound.

4. Советы по покупке для иностранных покупателей

Based on current conditions, we suggest the following procurement strategy:

Suitable time for selective buying

  • Prices remain close to recent lows

  • Supply pressure is easing due to mill maintenance

  • Sellers are more flexible on terms and volumes

Best approach

  • Secure partial volumes rather than full forward coverage

  • Focus on 304 and common 201 grades for near-term needs

  • Avoid chasing short-term price spikes driven by market volatility

Risk to watch

  • Demand recovery remains weak

  • Price rebounds may lack sustainability

  • Policy impact may take time to translate into real consumption

Overall, the market is expected to remain range-bound with mild volatility, favoring buyers who act selectively and negotiate actively.

5. What Buyers Should Monitor Next

  • Графики производства и технического обслуживания металлургического завода

  • Raw material cost movements

  • Inventory destocking pace

  • Export order demand and global economic signals

If you are planning purchases of stainless steel coils, sheets, or BA-finished products, the current market offers reasonable entry points with negotiation opportunities, especially for short-term and project-based orders.

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