China Stainless Steel Market

China stainless steel prices showed a rise followed by consolidation this week. Market sentiment was supported by global expectations of potential interest rate cuts, while prices are currently moving close to previous lows, where resistance remains noticeable.

Trading activity and open interest stayed largely unchanged, indicating a wait-and-see approach across the market. In the traditional off-season, overall confidence remains cautious, and buyers are closely watching policy signals and supply-side adjustments.

The main stainless steel futures contract closed at RMB 12,565/MT, up 0.52% week-on-week, with a weekly high of RMB 12,690/MT.

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1. Spot Market Situation

Spot stainless steel prices in China increased by approximately RMB 50/MT this week. Fundamentally, the market remains relatively weak, but several factors are influencing short-term price behavior:

  • Steel mills are increasing maintenance schedules, which may reduce supply pressure in the coming weeks

  • Social inventories continue to decline, although overall levels remain high

  • Downstream buyers are replenishing inventories at lower price levels, but resistance to higher prices remains strong

  • Seasonal demand remains soft, limiting the sustainability of any strong price rebound

Raw material prices stayed firm, providing cost support for stainless steel. Mills still maintain reasonable production margins, though profits are under pressure. On the macro side, monetary support exists, but fiscal stimulus implementation remains slow, keeping real demand recovery limited. Export conditions remain uncertain due to global economic factors.

Overall, the market lacks strong upward momentum and is expected to move within a range with downside pressure.

2. Key Weekly Price Movements (Reference)

  • 304 / 2B / BA: Increased by RMB 80–110/MT, showing stable demand from industrial and export buyers

  • 201 series (J1 / J2 / J5): Moderate increases, mainly driven by cost support rather than demand recovery

  • 430 series: Slight price declines, reflecting weaker downstream demand

  • 304 NO.1 hot rolled: Continued steady increases, especially in four-foot widths

  • Scrap prices: Firm to slightly higher, supporting overall cost levels

These movements suggest that current price increases are cost-driven rather than demand-led.

3. Inventory & Futures Warehouse Stocks

Registered stainless steel warehouse inventories decreased by 1,018 tons to 60,601 tons this week. Although inventories are still high, the pace of destocking has slowed. This means supply pressure remains present, and prices may face resistance without stronger demand support.

4. Buying Advice for Overseas Buyers

Based on current market conditions, we suggest the following procurement strategy:

  • Short-term buyers:
    Consider purchasing at current levels, especially for 304 and 201 grades, as prices are close to recent lows and supported by raw material costs.

  • Mid-term buyers:
    Avoid chasing higher prices. The market lacks strong demand momentum, and further consolidation or slight pullbacks are possible.

  • Project-based or bulk orders:
    This is a suitable window to negotiate flexible terms, secure production slots, or lock in partial volumes.

Overall, the stainless steel market is expected to remain weak and range-bound, with prices fluctuating rather than trending sharply upward.

5. What to Watch Next

  • Steel mill production and maintenance schedules

  • Raw material price movements

  • Policy implementation progress

  • Export order demand and overseas market conditions

If you are planning purchases of stainless steel coils, sheets, or BA finishes, current conditions offer reasonable sourcing opportunities with room for negotiation.

Contact us for updated export pricing, lead times, and material availability.