Market Summary

This week, China’s stainless steel market experienced a price rebound followed by a pullback, driven mainly by higher nickel prices and short-term speculative activity. Although futures prices moved higher earlier in the week, buyer acceptance at higher levels weakened, especially ahead of the New Year holiday.

The main stainless steel futures contract closed at RMB 12,955/ton, up 1.85% week-on-week, but market sentiment remains cautious as demand stays seasonally soft.

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1. Spot Market: Prices Up, Transactions Slowing

Spot prices for stainless steel rose by around RMB 200/ton, following the futures market. However, actual transactions declined as buyers showed resistance to higher prices.

Key observations relevant to overseas buyers:

  • Demand recovery remains limited: End-users continue to purchase mainly on a hand-to-mouth basis.

  • Export-driven demand is more active than domestic consumption.

  • Inventory levels are low at the trading level, supporting prices in the short term.

  • Supply is relatively tight, as some mill deliveries were delayed this week.

Raw material prices remain firm, increasing production costs, but steel mills are still operating with reasonable margins.

2. What This Means for International Buyers

From an import perspective, this week’s market shows several important signals:

  • Short-term prices are supported, mainly by raw materials and tight spot supply.

  • High prices face resistance, meaning sharp upside is limited unless demand improves.

  • Market confidence is fragile, and prices are still sensitive to macroeconomic news and nickel price movements.

If external markets weaken or nickel prices correct, stainless steel prices may return to fundamental-driven levels.

3. Buying Guidance

For overseas buyers considering imports from China:

  • Short-term procurement may still face relatively firm pricing.

  • Medium-term buyers should closely monitor:

    • Steel mill production schedules

    • Raw material price movements

    • Export order activity

  • Bulk buyers may find better entry points if market sentiment cools after the holiday period.

4. Inventory & Futures Snapshot

Registered stainless steel inventories in China continued to decline this week, reducing immediate pressure on the spot market. The pace of inventory drawdown will be a key factor influencing prices in the coming weeks.

5. Outlook

Overall, China’s stainless steel market is expected to move sideways with volatility. While costs and supply offer short-term support, weak seasonal demand limits further price increases.

Buyers are advised to remain cautious, track raw material trends, and plan purchases based on real demand rather than short-term price spikes.

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